Recovery Probability
The share of simulated paths that return to the peak before reaching an enabled limit, zero balance, or the trade cap. It describes this model, not real-world odds.
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Drawdown Recovery Calculator
How long will it take to recover?
Estimate recovery time and probability with Monte Carlo simulations based on your trading stats and drawdown limits.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Your trading statistics
Your Trading Stats
How far the current balance is below its previous peak. Enter a percentage from 1 to 99.
Your estimated share of trades that close as wins. Use a rate from your recorded results.
The average number of trades you take each month. The model uses this to express a rough recovery time.
The fixed gross dollar outcome for a simulated winning trade. The model does not vary position size or include costs.
The fixed gross dollar loss for each simulated losing trade. The daily bucket adds gross losses together; wins do not offset them.
The highest account balance before this drawdown. The model uses it as the recovery target and as the reference for percentage limits.
Prop Firm Limits (Optional)
Enter 0 to disable. Otherwise, trades are grouped into rounded-up buckets from monthly trades divided by 22, with at least one trade per bucket. Gross losses add together and wins do not offset them. This is a conservative approximation of active-day clustering, not a calendar or firm-specific equity rule.
Enter 0 to disable. Otherwise, the model treats this as a drawdown from the peak balance. Check your provider’s rules separately.
Set either limit to 0 to leave it out of the simulation.
The Asymmetric Math of Drawdowns
| Drawdown | Current Balance | Gain Required to Recover |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | $23,750 | +5.3% |
| 10% | $22,500 | +11.1% |
| 15% | $21,250 | +17.6% |
| 20% | $20,000 | +25.0% |
| 25% | $18,750 | +33.3% |
| 30% | $17,500 | +42.9% |
| 40% | $15,000 | +66.7% |
| 50% | $12,500 | +100.0% |
How to Use This Drawdown Recovery Calculator
Enter Your Current Drawdown
Enter the percentage your balance is below its previous peak. Use a preset for common drawdown levels, or type your own value.
Add Your Trading Statistics
Use a win rate, average win, average loss, and monthly trade count from your recorded results. The model repeats those fixed outcomes; it cannot represent a changing strategy or every market condition.
Set the Account Peak
Enter the highest account balance before the drawdown began. The simulation uses that amount as the balance you need to regain.
Add Optional Prop Firm Limits
Set a daily or overall drawdown limit to include a simplified failure condition. Enter 0 to disable a limit. For the daily limit, trades are grouped into rounded-up buckets from monthly trades divided by 22, with at least one trade per bucket. Gross losses add together and wins do not offset them. This conservatively approximates active-day clustering; it is not a calendar or firm-specific equity rule.
Read the Scenario Outputs
The calculator runs 500 paths, up to 3,000 trades each. Review the recovery probability, median time among paths that recovered, blowout risk, expected value, and the losses remaining to enabled limits.
Key Metrics Reference
Each result describes the assumptions you entered; none of them is a forecast.
Median Recovery Time
The middle recovery time among paths that reached the peak, converted from trades using your monthly trade count. A dash means no simulated path recovered.
Blowout Risk
The share of simulated paths that did not recover before a modeled limit, zero balance, or the 3,000-trade cap. It is the complement of the model’s recovery rate.
EV per Trade
The expected dollar outcome from your entered win rate and fixed average win and loss. It excludes fees, slippage, and changes in trade size.
Gain Needed to Recover
The return needed from the current balance to get back to the peak. It grows faster than the drawdown percentage because the balance being rebuilt is smaller.
Losses to Each Limit
A rough count of average-sized loss units in remaining limit headroom, rounded down. A loss that reaches an enabled limit already breaches it. Daily-loss room uses conservative trade-frequency buckets and may not match a firm’s policy.
The Asymmetric Math of Drawdowns
Losses and gains apply to different balance amounts. After a drawdown, the same percentage gain does not restore the larger starting balance, so the return needed to recover rises as the drawdown deepens.
| Drawdown | Balance (from $100K peak) | Gain Required to Recover | Reality Check |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | $95,000 | +5.3% | Manageable |
| 10% | $90,000 | +11.1% | Manageable |
| 20% | $80,000 | +25.0% | Difficult |
| 30% | $70,000 | +42.9% | Very difficult |
| 40% | $60,000 | +66.7% | Extreme |
| 50% | $50,000 | +100.0% | Near-impossible |
Drawdown Recovery Formulas
These relationships explain the calculator’s outputs. The simulation still depends on the sequence of wins and losses, not just an average.
Gain Required to Recover
Gain required = (1 ÷ (1 − d)) − 1, where d is drawdown as a decimal
A 20% drawdown leaves 80% of the peak balance. Returning from that level to the peak requires a 25% gain on the reduced balance, regardless of account size.
Expected Value per Trade
EV = (p × average win) − ((1 − p) × average loss), where p is the win rate
With a 55% win rate, a $500 average win, and a $300 average loss, this model estimates +$140 per trade before costs. A positive average does not describe the order in which outcomes arrive.
Recovery Probability (Monte Carlo)
Recovery probability = recovered paths ÷ simulated paths × 100
Each of 500 simulated paths samples a win or loss from the entered rate, then continues until it reaches the peak, a modeled failure condition, or 3,000 trades. The share that reaches the peak is the recovery probability for these assumptions.
Worked Example: Recovering a 20% Drawdown
Consider a $50,000 peak, a 20% drawdown, a 55% win rate, $500 average wins, $300 average losses, and 20 trades per month. This example also enables a 5% daily limit and a 10% overall limit.
| Metric | Your Value |
|---|---|
| Peak account balance | $50,000 |
| Current balance (after 20% DD) | $40,000 |
| Win rate | 55% |
| Average winner | $500 |
| Average loser | $300 |
| Trades per month | 20 |
| Overall DD limit remaining | $0 — At limit |
- Gain required: +25.0% from the current balance.
- Expected value: +$140 per trade, before costs.
- Overall limit: the current balance is already beyond the enabled overall limit, so paths fail before another trade.
Daily limit: By dollar amount alone, a $2,500 cap fits 8 $300 losses ($2,400); a ninth totals $2,700.
At 20 trades per month, this model puts one trade in each virtual-day bucket, so those eight losses do not occur together in this scenario.
- Monte Carlo result: 500 paths show 0% recovery probability, 100% blowout risk, and a dash for median recovery time.
Get the Exact Stats This Calculator Needs
Keep your win rate, average outcomes, and trade frequency grounded in your own journal. BitStat helps you organize the results behind a scenario like this.
Start TrackingFrequently Asked Questions
How does the calculator estimate recovery time?
It simulates 500 paths using the win rate, average win, average loss, and monthly trade count you enter. The median is calculated from paths that return to the peak; if none recover under the modeled conditions, the result is shown as a dash.
What is a Monte Carlo simulation in trading?
A Monte Carlo simulation samples possible outcomes many times to show how different win and loss sequences can affect a balance. This page uses fixed dollar wins and losses, so it is a simplified scenario rather than a prediction of your trading results.
Why is a 50% drawdown harder to recover from than a 25% drawdown?
After a 50% loss, the remaining balance needs to gain 100% to return to its peak. After a 25% loss, the remaining balance needs a 33.3% gain. Gains apply to the reduced balance, so the required return grows faster than the loss percentage.
What does blowout risk mean in this calculator?
It is the share of simulated paths that do not return to the peak before reaching an enabled limit, falling to zero, or reaching the 3,000-trade cap. It describes this model and is not a forecast of real-world failure.
How do prop firm drawdown limits affect recovery?
An enabled daily or overall limit can stop a simulated path before it reaches the peak. The daily model groups trades into rounded-up buckets from monthly frequency divided by 22, sums gross losses without wins offsetting them, and approximates active-day clustering. It is not a calendar or provider-specific equity rule, so check the account terms directly.
What does expected value per trade tell me?
Expected value combines the win rate and fixed average win and loss you enter into one average dollar outcome per trade. It does not show how outcomes arrive, include fees or slippage, or guarantee that a recovery path remains within your limits.
Can I make my drawdown recovery faster?
The result changes with trade frequency and the win and loss assumptions, but taking more risk can also deepen losses and reach a limit sooner. Review your recorded outcomes and account rules before changing a plan; this calculator cannot recommend a personal risk level.
This is an educational scenario tool, not investment advice or a promise of recovery. It excludes trading costs, variable position sizing, and provider-specific limit rules. Trading can result in the loss of capital.