Forecast
What the market already expects. It is priced in before the release, which is why a number that simply matches it usually does nothing.
How to read a release
Economic calendar for traders
Every scheduled release with its forecast, its actual and the previous reading. Filter by currency and by impact, in your own timezone.
Free and open. No account, no email, no paywall on the data.
Every release is three numbers
The event name tells you almost nothing. The gap between these three is what actually moves price.
Actual
What was published. The distance from the forecast is the surprise, and the surprise is what the move reacts to.
Previous
Last period, for context. It tells you whether this is a turn or just more of the same, and it gets revised more often than people expect.
In the calendar above, Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 162K against a 55K forecast. That gap, not the 162K, is the event.
What high, medium and low actually mean
Impact is a forecast of volatility, not of direction. It says how violently price is likely to react, and says nothing about which way.
High
Expect a spike within seconds, and a spread that widens before the number even lands. Rate decisions, NFP, CPI.
Medium
Usually moves its own pair, rarely the whole session. Retail sales, secondary PMIs, revised GDP.
Low
Priced in, ignored, or simply too small to register. Most of any calendar is this, which is why the filter exists.
Non-economic
Bank holidays and other days with nothing scheduled. No release, but thin liquidity does its own damage.
The releases that actually move price
Nine events account for most of the volatility in any given month. If you learn only these, you have covered the calendar.
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
US jobs added outside farming, first Friday of the month, 08:30 New York time. The most reliable source of volatility in dollar pairs and gold, largely because the forecast is so often wrong.
CPI and core CPI
Consumer price index, monthly. It drives what the central bank is expected to do next, so the reaction is often larger than the number deserves. Core strips out food and energy and is the one that matters.
Central bank rate decisions
The Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ, RBA, BOC and RBNZ each on their own schedule. The rate itself is usually priced in. The move comes from the statement wording, not the number.
Press conferences and speeches
Powell, Lagarde, Bailey. No number is published, so the actual column stays empty, and the whole move comes from tone. These catch traders who filter for events that have a forecast.
PMI
Purchasing managers index. Above 50 is expansion, below 50 is contraction. Flash readings move more than final ones, because they are the first look at the month.
Unemployment rate
Released alongside payrolls for the US. On its own it moves less, but when the two disagree you get the messy candle that reverses twice before settling.
Retail sales
Consumer spending, monthly. The clearest read on whether higher rates are actually biting yet, which is why it moves more in a tightening cycle than in a calm one.
GDP
Quarterly, and published three times: advance, preliminary and final. The advance reading is the one that moves price. By the final release there is almost nothing left to surprise anyone.
Bank holidays
Not an economic release at all, which is why the calendar marks them separately. They matter because liquidity thins, spreads widen and ranges break for no reason worth trading.
Questions about the calendar
What it covers, what it costs, and how to read what is in it.
Is this economic calendar free?
Yes, completely. No account, no email, no limit on how much of it you can see. BitStat is a trading journal and the calendar is open because a calendar behind a signup form is useless.
What timezone are the times shown in?
Your own. The calendar reads the timezone from your browser and converts every release, so you are not doing arithmetic from GMT at 15:29. It is shown above the table so you can check it.
What does high impact mean?
It is a forecast of volatility, not of direction. High means price is likely to move sharply within seconds and the spread will widen before the release. It says nothing about which way it goes.
What is the difference between actual, forecast and previous?
Forecast is what the market expected and had already priced in. Actual is what was published. Previous is the last reading, for context. The gap between forecast and actual is the surprise, and the surprise is what moves price.
When is Non-Farm Payrolls released?
The first Friday of each month at 08:30 New York time, covering the previous month. Occasionally it shifts when the first Friday falls on a holiday, so check the calendar rather than the rule.
Which currencies does the calendar cover?
USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD and CNY, with releases, central bank decisions, press conferences and non-economic days such as bank holidays.
Why do some events have no numbers at all?
Speeches, press conferences and statements publish no figure, so actual, forecast and previous stay empty. They are often the highest impact events on the day precisely because there is nothing to price in beforehand.
What is BitStat, and how does the calendar fit in?
BitStat is a trading journal: it pulls your trades from your broker and turns them into statistics. The same calendar sits inside the account, next to the trades you took. This page is the calendar on its own, open to everyone.
Economic calendar
Start freeThe calendar is free. The journal is where it pays off.
Knowing NFP is at 15:30 is easy. Knowing what you did the last six times it landed is the part that needs a journal.
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