USD — Core CPI m/m

US Core CPI m/m measures the percentage change from the previous month in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy. It is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market headline uses the seasonally adjusted index so recurring patterns such as holidays, weather and model-year changes do not obscure short-term inflation momentum.

Food and energy are excluded because their prices can be unusually volatile, not because households do not buy them. Core CPI still covers a wide range of goods and services, including shelter, medical care, transportation services, apparel and recreation. Shelter has a large weight and can strongly influence the headline. A 0.3% monthly result means the core price index rose 0.3% from the preceding month; it is not an annual inflation rate.

Compare Actual with Forecast and Previous, then check whether the previous month was revised after annual seasonal-factor updates. A stronger-than-expected reading can increase expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, potentially lifting Treasury yields and the USD. A softer result can have the opposite effect. Markets often distinguish persistent services inflation from more volatile goods prices, and may react differently when the surprise is concentrated in one category.

One month can be distorted by seasonal adjustment or a small number of components. Review three- and six-month annualised rates, the year-over-year core rate and detailed contributions. Core CPI is useful for studying underlying pressure, but it is not the Federal Reserve’s formal target measure and does not capture every form of consumer expenditure.

Official source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Consumer Price Index.