CPI m/m

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m measures the percentage change in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services compared with the previous month. It is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the headline monthly figure is normally based on the seasonally adjusted CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), which helps remove recurring seasonal patterns. The basket covers major household spending categories such as housing, food, transportation, medical care, apparel, recreation, education and communication. Each component is weighted using household expenditure data, so categories with a larger share of consumer spending have a greater influence on the index.

Headline CPI includes food and energy, while Core CPI excludes those two volatile categories and is often reviewed alongside the headline number to assess underlying inflation pressure. A monthly CPI reading of 0.3%, for example, means the measured price level increased by 0.3% from the previous month; it does not mean prices rose by 0.3% over the full year.

Markets usually focus on the difference between Actual and Forecast rather than the number in isolation. A stronger-than-expected reading can increase expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, which may support US Treasury yields and the USD while pressuring rate-sensitive assets. A weaker reading can have the opposite effect. These reactions are not automatic: positioning, revisions, the composition of inflation, Core CPI, labour-market data and the broader policy outlook can outweigh the headline surprise. The Federal Reserve’s formal 2% inflation objective is defined using the PCE price index, not CPI, although policymakers closely monitor both measures.

When evaluating a release, compare Actual, Forecast and Previous values; check whether the previous month was revised; review the three- and six-month trend; and examine which components drove the change. One month can be distorted by volatile categories or seasonal adjustment, and seasonally adjusted CPI data may later be revised when adjustment factors are updated. CPI is an economy-wide statistical average and may not match the inflation experienced by a particular household. This page should therefore be used as context for interpreting the release, not as a standalone trading signal.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).