Chicago PMI

Chicago PMI is a survey-based diffusion index of business activity in the Chicago region. It is not national industrial production or US GDP, but it can offer an early read on manufacturing and broader business conditions before some nationwide releases. Participants report changes in production, new orders, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices; the 50 threshold generally separates expansion from contraction. The headline should be read with the sub-indices and the change from the previous month, because a strong move in one component can drive the overall result. Compare it with national ISM surveys, regional Fed surveys and hard production data. A surprise can affect near-term US growth and USD rate expectations, but its regional survey sample limits how much weight one release deserves.