JPY — BOJ Outlook Report

The Bank of Japan’s Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, commonly called the Outlook Report, presents the Policy Board’s assessment of Japan’s economy, inflation and risks. It is decided at Monetary Policy Meetings and published quarterly, usually in January, April, July and October. The report includes forecasts by Policy Board members for real GDP and the CPI excluding fresh food, together with a narrative explaining the baseline and uncertainty. Forecast ranges and medians are projections, not guaranteed outcomes.

Markets compare the new forecast path, risk balance and language with the previous report and with what was already priced. Higher underlying inflation projections, stronger wage-price dynamics or more confidence in achieving the 2% target can increase expectations of policy normalization and support JPY or Japanese yields; weaker projections can do the opposite. The reaction is conditional on global rates, risk sentiment and positioning. Distinguish temporary food or energy effects from the BOJ’s view of underlying inflation, and check the assumptions for exchange rates, commodities and overseas growth. The report is revised as data and risks evolve and should be read together with the same-day policy statement and Governor’s press conference. Source: Bank of Japan.